Swinging Against Health Care Bills

It appears that voters in "swing" districts, that is, those districts which usually vote GOP but elected Democrats in the past two cycles, are turning significantly against the bills being considered for passage this week.  In a new survey by the Polling Company for Independent Women's Voice, a huge majority of voters in those districts are now against passage of the bill.

The survey shows astonishing intensity and sharp opposition to reform, far more than national polls reflect. For 82% of those surveyed, the heath-care bill is either the top or one of the top three issues for deciding whom to support for Congress next November. (That number goes to 88% among independent women.) Sixty percent want Congress to start from scratch on a bipartisan health-care reform proposal or stop working on it this year. Majorities say the legislation will make them and their loved ones (53%), the economy (54%) and the U.S. health-care system (55%) worse off—quite the trifecta.

I seems that 70% would vote against their Congressman if he votes for the Senate bill (or any of the three now before Congress).  That number includes a large minority of Democrats, as well as a very large number of  independents (72%) as well as 88% of Republicans. 

Over 70%—indeed in several districts over 80%—of respondents, across party lines, said that the following information made them less supportive: the bill mandates that individuals purchase insurance or face penalties; it cuts Medicare Advantage; it will force potentially millions to lose existing coverage; it will cost an estimated $2.3 trillion over its first 10 years; and it will grant unprecedented new powers to the Health and Human Services secretary.

It's not all bad news though, the survey does show that a Congressman can bail himself out of this hole (if he had previously voted for the bill) by voting against it now.   Almost half of the respondents (49%) said they would vote for a Congressman IF they voted against it now.   

More dramatically, 58% of voters say they will be more supportive of their congressman's re-election if he votes against the bill a second time. However, for those members who voted against it in November and vote yes this time, 61% of voters say they will be less likely to support their re-election.

So, if the Democrats do pass this horrendous bill, they will at the very least lose control of the House of Representatives, because fully 35 of those seats are in these "swing" districts.  I predict that voter anger will be so bad that Democrats will lose at least 100 seats if not 150...because the growing backlash against this bill has begun to spread broadly across the middle class, as they will be the ones who ultimately foot the costs of this bill.