Monday, November 09, 2009
The Obama Administration claimed that with the "Stimulus Package" that unemployment would top out at 8%...that was more than 6 months ago. Now, unemployment has zipped past 10% and is still climbing. How do I know? I just lost my job, so I'm vitally interested in the economy.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like things will turn for the better any time soon. With the stock market sliding further, the temporary peak just above 10k at the NY Stock Exchange is a thing of the past. With the very narrow passage of the House's 1900 page health care seizure plan...one with a price tag that tops $1 trillion dollars (at the most conservative estimate), high unemployment levels are here to stay.
With manufacturing in a tailspin, lead by the destruction of the American auto industry (federal seizure of that vitally important sector spells it's eventual demise) means that if the Feds seize control of another 1/6th of the economy (i.e. health care) that small business won't be the engine of recovery most economist are hoping it will be. After all, if the government will require small businesses to provide very costly health insurance, they just won't hire new (or more) workers. In fact, most of the small business owners I know (I live in very Blue MD) are terrified of the taxation/fees that are listed in the House bill. Most tell me they will lay off workers rather than have what amounts to a 25% tax on their businesses.
I predict, that next fall, the Democratic Party will be shocked at the polls by the loss of at least 100 seats in the House and perhaps 12 seats in the Senate. I suspect that even "safe" seats will fall prey to challengers that pledge to overturn this bill. I suspect that those who do gain office won't necessarily be Republicans either, most will be independents, libertarians or fiscal conservatives.